March 10, 2009
Posted: 316 GMT

LONDON, England (CNN) - When Northern Ireland's police chief, Hugh Orde, warned a week ago of a heightened threat from dissident Republicans he did not mince his words.

"We are very clear," he said, "they are determined to kill police officers going about their normal duty of keeping people safe."
It now appears those fears have been confirmed.

The fatal shooting of a police officer in the town of Craigavon, not far from the capital, Belfast, comes just 48 hours after gunmen shot dead two British servicemen at a barracks in the province.

The Republican splinter group, the Real IRA, claimed responsibility for that attack. And no one in Northern Ireland will be surprised if they claim responsibility for this latest one as well.

Membership of the Real IRA, a rump of Republican activists who refused to go along with the main Provisional IRA, and its political partner Sinn Fein, after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that set Northern Ireland on the road to peace, is put in the low hundreds. But as so often with violent extremists, they have a power to shape events out of all proportion to their size. Or so at least they will wish to believe.

These targets are not randomly chosen. By targeting the police, and particularly the British army, they are hitting Republican weak spots. Sinn Fein, fully signed up to the peace process and a key partner in the power-sharing government, makes no bones about the fact it wants to see all British troops out of Northern Ireland. Like it or not, Gerry Adams finds himself in a difficult position being forced to condemn an attack on the British army. Calling on Republicans to grass on those who carried it out is another, even more problematic, step to take.

What the Real IRA wants to see happen is an over-reaction from Unionists and a move by the British government to put soldiers back on the streets. Political Republicans are highly sensitive to these possibilities. Hence the sharp criticism from Sinn Fein before these attacks to news that the intelligence arm of British special forces had been called into the province to meet the rising dissident threat.

The response to the attack over the weekend suggested the consensus that governs Northern Ireland - that all sides keep dancing together in the name of devolved government and the peace process - was holding. If that changes then the dissidents will hope their shocking show of strength can win new support.

What's worrying is where that support might come from. Paul Dixon of Kingston University points out the apparent anomaly that support for those political parties that have most readily embraced the peace process has tended to come not from the young - those, on the face of it, with the most to gain from peace - but from the older generations, those who've grown weary of decades of violence. The fear is that the readiness of many younger voters to support those parties who've taken a tougher line on the peace process might translate into a new generation ready to abandon peace altogether.

One Northern Ireland politician said after the latest killing that the province is "staring into the abyss." It's a frightening thought that the foundations of peace in Northern Ireland might really be so shallow.

But amid the pessimism, it's worth recalling that previous attacks in the province have sometimes succeeded in actually embedding the peace process further, through a shared revulsion to the violence from across the communities. The challenge to Northern Ireland's politicians, its police force, and the British government, is that they collectively hold their nerve and bring their people with them.

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Jack Quann -Dublin, Ireland   March 10th, 2009 1000 GMT

These attacks are by a small group of people who want to make the world a worse place for all of us -I really hope they don't succeed. Everyone I have heard who has talked about the attacks (except one text message we got into the radio station I work in) has condemned them in the strongest sense; people have even gone so far as to urge restraint on the communities in Northern Ireland, should they seek retaliation. It is absolutely necessary to remember we are all human & deserve a chance to live in peace. Do not let one small group ruin it for the rest of us.

George   March 10th, 2009 1040 GMT

The British government needs to get these people, either capture them or kill them, either or. I dont think the people of N.Ireland mind which one they do. How dare these idiots try to drag the people of N.ireland back down this road. I live in the U.S, and now I have friends approach me and say how horrible it must be to live there, arent you glad you left etc etc. I cant express the anger I feel when people say things like this about N.Ireland. M.I.5 must know who these people are, they must be stopped immediately. N.Ireland has got to be able to heal, the new generation has to be allowed to flourish without hate, removed from civil unrest and the fear and anger it breads. Stop these men at all costs, whatever it takes. Protestants and Catholics stand together and pressure your politicions. If N.Ireland was any other country this would not not be acceptable. If this happened in the U.S where I live now, these people would already be dead. The F.B.I do not mess around.Take note MI5!!

Darren Smith -London   March 10th, 2009 1113 GMT

Sinn Fein have angered a lot of people by, first, taking 14 hours to word a response and, second, have said response made up of weak words and phrases saying that murder was 'not productive' rather than calling for the apprehension and punishment of the gunmen.

McGuinness has clearly pulled the trigger himself and could reign in the bad men, and everyone knows that both sides of the divide know who is responsible, they paint it on the sides of their houses, they brag. These men are not hiding.

Adding to this, but not trying to score point, when the chief constable of Northern Ireland said there was a need to have surveillance operatives on the streets and a heightened security risk two weeks ago it was Sinn Fein that disagreed and appeared on TV saying he was scaremongering.

Perhaps they were part of a smoke and mirrors plan, perhaps they knew of the attacks before they happend. Murderers do keep very dark circles.

Richard King   March 10th, 2009 1114 GMT

It's hard to see what these murderers want to get out of these attacks other than some more deaths. They appear to have no political agenda other than 'Brits out of NI'. It's all so passe. England, Wales, Scotland, NI and the Republic are all now just regions within the EU. The concept of Republicanism now seems to me an irrelevance to everyone on the whole island, not just NI. That fight is over, Sinn Fein won.

Paul Joseph   March 10th, 2009 1138 GMT

Let's get this in perspective. It is not appropriate to kill British soldiers in the north of Ireland at this time. Reason: it destabilises the recently established political process and it does not progress any desirable goal, even the presumable goal of the so-called real IRA.

But these British soldiers were using Irish bases to prepare themselves to go to Afghanistan and kill Taliban or other resistance fighters in that occupied country. The quisling Afghanistan government, installed by the Americans, has no legitimacy and the British have not yet learnt that occupying another country is never popular with the natives. Soldiers are trained to kill and I see no reason to express much sympathy for foreign soldiers killed in Ireland, especially those preparing to go to another continent and participate in a war of occupation. It makes Irish people complicit in a war that has nothing to do with them. Let the British take their soldiers back to their own country and keep them there, neither Ireland nor Afghanistan needs them.

john   March 10th, 2009 1150 GMT

These people are a disgrace, killing soliders, policemen and attemping to kill pizzaboys. Unfortunately the British government and the world are avoiding calling these people what they really are which is Terrorists, they have no part in modern Society and although I would like to see Mi5 dispose of these people I believe doing so would only increase their support in communities.

Being a British citizen and living in a country affected by terrorism from these extremists, who have actively been supported by the United States, I would like to ask the world why we treat a terrorist difference if he is Irish?

Paul Joseph   March 10th, 2009 1223 GMT

Paul Joseph – they weren't foreign soldiers in Ireland; they were British soldiers serving the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom – a point lost on many Americans – so to suggest the Irish are now complicit with the operations in Afghanistan just displays a lak of understanding of the issues. Your final suggestion that the British should go back to Britain just hammers home your ignorance – they were never in Ireland so why should they go home?

Anthony Ratcliffe   March 10th, 2009 1229 GMT

Find these terrorist cowards and hang them along with their sponsors and fund raisers, wherever they may be in the world.

We all know historically where the IRA got a lot of funding and arms, and I'm not talking about Libya or Eire!

Philip McGrath - Republic of Ireland   March 10th, 2009 1233 GMT

This is a sad and harrowing reminder of a past we wish to bury. There is little, if any, support amongst the people of the Irish republic for this type of murder. These people need to be arrested and subjected to the full rigours of the law. Everyone, on either side of the border, who knows someone involved in either of these splinter groups, needs to contact the authorities in their jurisdiction. True republicanism is about the will of the people. Murdering innocent public servants is not the will of the people.

jill newton   March 10th, 2009 1306 GMT

The peace in Northern Ireland will always be fragile until a generation of children is educated together in schools which are integrated by design rather than demographic accident. At present, fewer than 10% of Northern Irish children learn in such an environment – one explicitly committed to a shared future and not clinging on to the follies of the past, religious or political. No-one who was educated in a Catholic school there – as I was – would claim that there was not a continual subtext of sympathy and support, not merely for " a Catholic education" but for republicanism and indeed the IRA. Religious education could take place in such schools at the end of the day or the beginning and be given by the local clergy rather than having the imprimatur of teachers. It should also be optional.

avi makeler   March 10th, 2009 1436 GMT

Unless I'm going senile I seem to recall that world governments, including the British, are demanding Israel to terminate the occupation of arab lands, pull their army out, implement two countries for two nations, and then there will be peace.

So I humbly suggest that the British try the same experiment: namely pull their army and representatives out of N. Ireland, and grant it complete independence.

However from our experience of Gaza, don't get too excited. Israel pulled out of Gaza about 3 years ago, and ever since then, the Gazan arabs have been using their new-found independence to shoot mortar shells and missiles onto our cities, where the missiles are getting ever longer range and heavier (with lots of Egyptian and Iranian help).

[Now there's a thought: radical Scottish and Welsh nationalists living in a completely independent N. Ireland import missiles from Iran and shoot them into England, a cease fire being dependent only on England granting autonomy to these nationalists' historic homelands...]

- avi, Israel

TIMOTHY CLEARY   March 10th, 2009 1614 GMT

Some pretty amazing comments here! Everybody living in the British Isles knows that 99.999% of the people want peace! The idea that such an extreme murderous minority can can some how disrupt this peace process is absurd. Provided of course, that they are not assisted by those who should no better!

Adam ó hAodh   March 10th, 2009 2134 GMT

A chairde

I am an Irish Republican. I do not want a British government, police or military presence on the island of Ireland.

Those in the island of Ireland, by far the minority, who see themselves as British are welcome and should be free to express their Britishness in a United Ireland. There is nothing wrong with Britishness.

Republicanism in its truest sense envisages personal responsibility, democracy, social strength and a sense of identity, amongst other things. As a political model, it of course finds its origins in Greek philosophy.

Ireland has a cultural identity that sits apart from the British. We have a language, sports, dances, litterature and a way of seeing, living and relishing life that is particularly ours.

I don't want to become part of any Mc Donaldisation of my Irish identity.

I want to maintain my Irish identity whilst at the same time discovering, learning from and cherishing all other identities (including British). That's the kind of exchange that makes our world a richer place.

I want to see an Ireland that is United and defined by love, compassion and ability to rejoice in anothers' success.

I don't want any hangover from British imperialism, which was largely motivated by greed and maintained by violence, exploitation and repression. Those currents were at the source of recent Irish troubles.

The violent murders of two British soldiers and a policeman these last days were completely at odds with true Republicanism. Those that committed those acts were wrong, are lost and in desperate need of assistance.

I long for the day when we, on the island of Ireland, create a United, strong and passionate political party that speaks for true Irish Republicanism.

Thanks

Jack   March 11th, 2009 057 GMT

As an ex soldier in the parachute regiment i served in NI many times over the course of my career and was deeply shocked when i saw the news reports of the two dead sappers.Now liveing in the US i regularly struggle not to scream out at the ignorance of even my closest american friends.The IRA didnt spend the last 30 years playing with kittens they were out killing and mameing hundreds of people.But i guess their supplyers in Boston like to pretend that wasnt the case.

Proud Irish American   March 11th, 2009 115 GMT

First of all I am an American that is proud of my Irish heritage.
I support a united Ireland where Protestants and Catholics live in peace. However, if Ireland cannot be united through peace then it must be done through war as a last resort. Paul Joseph, you are wrong and you are the one who is ignorant. Great Britain has no right on ANY part of the island of Ireland, north or south. The British are invaders!
Peace out!
26 + 6 = 1. Erin Go Bragh! And have a merry St. Patrick's Day!

Security Files » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland: ‘Staring into the abyss’   March 11th, 2009 430 GMT

[...] [Source link] [...]

Anthony Ratcliffe   March 11th, 2009 1244 GMT

Proud Irish American – How long ago did your family leave Ireland? What %age are you actually Irish? Have you ever been to any part of Ireland? I would guess your just a sad individual whose actually American born and bred, but still supports a terrorist organisation.

Do you or have you ever raised money knowing it would go to the IRA or any of its splinter groups?

Northern Ireland has had a referendum in the past and decided not to be reunited with Southern Ireland. I'm sorry to say, but thats democracy. Perhaps some yanks like you can't handle democracy!

jimmy   March 12th, 2009 1747 GMT

Proud Irish American
I was in the British army from 1971 to 1975 in Ireland and you are talking the biggest load of trash I have ever read .Sure we got shot at, bombed ,and shouted at, but there is a large amount of very good people on both sides in northern Ireland who just want to live together and in peace .When you see body parts lying every where, fighting does not solve the problem talking does and you are a bloody fool who we all could do without I saw many good people from both sides badly hurt or dead including kids ,you should be a shamed to talk like that and I am really trying not to swear. All I will say is never be in a war.

jimmy   March 12th, 2009 2054 GMT

Proud Irish American
I was just discussing your thinking with my wife, when she said maybe he play’s to much call of duty world at war you can get a lot of noise from a armchair warrior. I must say I think she is right God help us all.

Neutral   March 13th, 2009 1201 GMT

It seems to me that an historical mistake was made with partition back in 1922. As it created an insoluble problem. A priviledged and artifically created majority (Protestant) and an oppressed minority (Catholic) in Ulster. That is what precipitated the 1969 Civil Rights movement. The best analogy I can think of is the situation in Southern Rhodesia at the same time. A priviledged minority lordng it over the rest. It was the Unionist over-reaction to the Civil Rights Movement that precipitated the birth of the Provisionl IRA. The British army were caught in the middle and were asked to do the wrong task. Using an army to defuse civil discontent has never really worked. Things have moved on since then. The issue of being British is surely a moot point now. Within the EU both UK and Republic of Erie citizens have freedom of movement in both countrries. Similalrly the Loyalist fear of being subjetced to Catholic morality and schooling is also evaporating as Erie is rapidly becomming a secular country.
Bigotry remains a problem. A few years ago the world witnessed the amazing sight of Catholic school children running a gauntlet of viscious verbal atatcks on their way to school. SImilalrly the Loayalist insistence on Orange order Marching is hardly a sign of reconciliation. The devolution of power to Wales and Scotland and ongoing demands for complete independence of Scotalnd are also interesting as most Scottish nationalists are aslo good Presbyterians who are opposed to Irish republicanism. The only real solution is for Ulster to revert to Ireland and for the various groups to move on from there. Sure there will be protests and threats but once people have got used to peace veyr few want to go back to war.

Jack   March 13th, 2009 1321 GMT

Jimmy-never has a truer word been said mate

jimmy   March 13th, 2009 1914 GMT

Neutral
I reside in Scotland I have many catholic friends and many protestant friends. I am a protestant. But who cares what you are. Its what is inside you that counts and how you respect your fellow man? Most people who advocate violence do so from a great distance and let others do the deed. These people must not be aloud to put Ireland back to where it was when I was there. I would be so sad to see a return to armoured cars and flak jackets. This is what these people are trying to do, I also think the political scene is much stronger now and you will not see a strong arm approach from government as that would be just what these people would want, so they could recruit more people and say again I told you they would do that, the people themselves will change Ireland .As to Ireland being one country I would say that is a long way off and you cannot listen to paper talk as an example demands for complete independence of Scotland I do not know anyone who wants Scotland Independent, I will not say that goes for every one, but most want to stay as we are in the union, That is what you have in Ireland .As to the orange order marching I go with some catholic friends to watch them sometimes no one says anything about the Hibernian marches that takes place. So I do not think it really matters let the Catholics and protestants strut there stuff, I would rather see banner waving and a healthy taunt from which ever side it is than some poor person getting shot. I also hope you are correct that one day Ireland is one but I would not hold your breath mate. All any one can do mate is hope reason prevails and rises above violence.

jimmy   March 13th, 2009 2050 GMT

jill newton March 10th, 2009
This is just an after thought for jill
Even in Scotland where I live Protestants and Catholics are not educated in the same schools so its not just Ireland. The kids all play together after school but it’s all down to religious education in catholic schools. You do not get a protestant teacher in a catholic school but you can get a catholic teacher in a protestant school. Because religious education is not as big a priority in a protestant school. Just a thought Jill
jim

Anthony Ratcliffe   March 19th, 2009 1222 GMT

Silence from Proud Irish American says it all. He/She must be finding it hard to justify terrorism in Northern Ireland and not appear to have double standards when it comes to terrorism in the USA.

jimmy   March 25th, 2009 1402 GMT

Anthony-maybe he/she has taken the head of stupidity of and put it in the trash can empty vessels make the most sound.

Sara   March 30th, 2009 1205 GMT

Although I was born an American, I am proud of the fact that I am half Irish and half British. I was over joyed in 1998 when the peace accord was signed, as growing up I could never understand why certain people, on both sides could not let by gones be by gones. I am very sad that certain people (namely the Real IRA) still cannot see that after 800 years, all that the people of Northern Ireland want is to raise their children in peace and safety, knowing that they can walk to school and not be shot at or blown up. So shame on the Real IRA and shame on any one else who means to destroy the hopes and dreams of generations to come.

Mary Clogston   April 6th, 2009 1826 GMT

It amazes me that Ireland is the last occupied country in Europe and no one says a word about that. If it was occupied by Russia there would be an unending furor.

I believe the problem is Northern Ireland (or the UK) which ever pleases you, is the plantation of a very disfunctional group of families from southwest Scotland. These families had been killing each other since the time of Hadrian's wall, and the royals in London decided to disperse them to the US, Australia and Northern Ireland. Of course they were also occupying some nice land which could prove very useful to the powers that be.

This incidentally was documented on our American TDC (The Discovery Channel) in the late 1990's.

Everywhere they were put they continued causing havor as in the feuds in the Southern USA and Australia. Imagine the impact such a disfunctional group would have in tiny Northern Ireland.

Is the UK a peaceful country? They went all over the world attacking defenseless countries sending money back to keep the royals in luxury.

I have traveled all over the Republic of Ireland and can see no religious strife anywhere. Indeed I know that the majority of Northern Irish Protestants are totally peaceful, intelligent people and would never fight another person because of their religion. How do I know that? We have them in our famiy and among our friends.

I say turn to the Research Doctors to really find what is going on in Northern Ireland (or UK). Track the descendents of the disfunctional plantation and compare it with the US and Australia. One of the most well know feuding families in the Southern US has been found to have a neurological disorder, tumors on the nervous system, that makes them fly into a rage at the slightlest provocation.

Also while we are at it, I would like to see our children's history books changed. Instead of glorifying a host of murderous lunatics starting with Alexander the great on down to the present day, I would love to see the Doctors who strive to help people, the men who work to make wheelchairs and prothetics for the disabled and all the good loving people presented as world heroes. Let's identify all the murderous billigerents as the disfunctional maniacs they truly are.

Good people do not maim and murder under any guise,

Mary

Elizabeth Beall   June 25th, 2009 1500 GMT

In reading all the comments,I have to say there is truth in all-Thus the quandry-As with so many problems that are left unresolved,the true root of the problem is obscured as more and more layers are added-What is happening now is comparable to bailing out the water without turning off the faucet-Without the formation of the Republic the recent events of N.Ireland would not now be limited to N.Ireland-What is the factor responsible for the difference-Look at the events and you see a place stuck in time-Desperation on one side-favoritism and advantage on the other-And the very human emotions that accompany both states-In every country where this situation exists and is fostered will follow the same behaviour-Whether it be Africa,India ,the Middle East,Mexico or the United States-What we must do is direct the energy towards those that profit from these divisions ,deflecting the focus from them and the possible realization that they are not needed-Hate each other and we cannot hate them-The two greatest forces that govern our lives as Human Beings are religious and political-They play us for fools-

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Paula Newton and Andrew CareyNews and observations on the threats to international security and the challenges posed by terrorism to societies around the world. By CNN's International Security Correspondent, Paula Newton, and International Security Producer, Andrew Carey. From breaking news to background stories, from serious analysis to casual asides, if we think it's interesting we'll post it here.

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